Voice of Sevastopol     


Author: Ayre от 3.08.2014, 10:00
(голосов: 1)


Initially published 22.06.2014 in Russian by VooDoo
Translator: Master Butch


Various claims and communications keep coming from South-East battle-front. Periodically folks are skidded left and right - from "Putin flushed all" to "do all ourselves". In reality, there are fundamental things, considering which many parts "click" in their places. And it becomes clear, that Russia just can't "flush" South-Eastern state Novorossia on the whole and Slavyansk in part. That will be equal to losing in war for 30-50 years to come. I will take a try to puzzle things out, though it may turn out to be manifolds. Pray excuse me in advance - just can't stand it no longer, the naggers and pessimists had got me. Excuse me again for the lack of references - much of what I bring out below has already appeared in this branch, to dig in the depths of which I have neither wish nor time.

Public debt of the USA of 18,5 trillion is known and has been widely discussed. Besides that there are fundamental trends, one of which presents the point, that sooner or later the question of energy resources will stand up full height.

1. Bits of puzzle

This is effective power capacity generated by various sources (blue area at the bottom - hydropower, grey one atop of it - coal, next layer up - gas and oil, and the uppermost - nuclear power), and the red line shows energy being consumed in gigawatts. The whole table demonstrates sort of prognosis for the expanse of 2010-2100 years. Note that the green line stands for some sources of energy generation which come to stand in place of traditional ones (as to the present scheme - nuclear fusion energy with laser ignition).

The main point of this picture is that by the year of 2030 it predicts the beginning of prolonged decline in energy production. Source of this picture - website of US government's Energy Information Administration: http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/reports.cmf

For a long time the picture was apprehended a scarecrow, just to beat money out to fund scientific programs. But there is one delicate point - the website itself is a solid source of information, which provides many things, including making decisions by politicians (to whom and how much money to give).


yellow- water, blue - nuclear, red - renewable without water
Vertically - brown - gas, blue - coal, green - oil.


Purpose of the analysis is very simple - just to define the capabilities of Power Industry to replace traditional power producing technologies (burning gas, coal and oil) by alternative - nuclear, hydro and sun-windy. The most optimistic, from the consumption viewpoint, scenario has been played - minimal consumption due to minimal increase of global population in conditions of constant aging (when at around 2045 maximum of global population is achieved and then it begins gradually decline because of aging). If we conjecture development of sun and wind power energetics at the same rate as do other sectors of Power Industry (like, for example exponential growth of nuclear energy for 15 years since 1965), by year of 2050 non-gas, oil and coal energy sectors will provide half the necessary consumption level to warm up slowly dying aged global population. That means that need of gas, coal and oil will not cease at least till 2050.

Most curious was recent (May, if I'm not mistaken) interview with Energy Minister of Germany (look up reference won't be given for the same reason - no time to dig in the vaults of Inet) in which an official of German government admitted a fact known to all technicians and physicists long ago:

Energy produced by sun and wind is of impulsive character. Be the sun- be the current, no sun or be a cloud - no current. Same for the wind. These types of energy resources require mighty accumulators which store energy equal, for example, to capacity as to provide electricity for a day to a town/ region/ country as long as it generates, and during dead calm or rain give it back to consumers. The main point of Minister's claims was that that the problem of manufacturing of such accumulators in perspective of 10-15 years will not be solved. That means that sun and wind electric stations cannot yet compete with conventional fuels. Save for the cases were, for a separate standing house, a sun battery can be employed if an accumulator is housed in a construction sized an out-of-door toilet.


What does it all have to do with Ukraine, Novorossia and re-tailoring of the world? Just watch the picture and try to make out that the same are doing US senators and congressmen, Obama, Merckel and whoever else that might be in the world. And it is not important how accurate the picture is - those people have to decide keeping this picture in mind. The decision is simple - it is necessary (prior to 2030) to grab sources of oil, gas, coal and the ways and means of their transportation (specifically gas and oil tubes). And the one who succeeds in taking in possession of it all ad maximum, is sure to become a leader atop the tide of expected energy crisis in 2030. And it is only some 15-16 years far.

Thence many dances of the modern world come. Here shale revolution for example. Pretty ambiguous phenomenon actually. We have both optimistic prognoses and analyses and pessimistic ones. 


And the efforts in this direction never cease. The reason can be easily derived from the picture above: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If you do not have your own natural gas, production of shale gas, as matched to current prices, becomes justified and profitable.
Then, convulsive efforts to create such an alternative energy source as nuclear fusion. USA have already invested a couple of yards of green bucks in laser ignition technology to the mercy of Livermore laboratory
which after 20 years resulted in that nothing had been ignited, though it leaps from record to record along the endless way to success.

By that the history has not ended. In the United States under way is another alternative project - Omega - at Rochester University.

The problem is aggravated by the fact that investments of 2-3 billions needed to keep the program going are not available, billions thaw like snow in spring. So that's not the issue in question. Thence the necessity to give the burden of scientific research over on the European shoulders where since 2005 (primary project, sure - since 2008) the program (not without American service) of Controlled Nuclear Laser Ignited Fusion was set into motion.


There is a separate Nuclear Laser Ignited Fusion program in France of their own - Megajoule

A program of Laser Fusion of their own has Japan, even regardless of their problems with Fukusima

In France in full stride goes on building of alternative Nuclear Fusion reactor - on the basis of old Soviet Union idea of holding reaction in strong magnetic fields of Tokamak Complex.
Though now it is a large international project with such participants as Europe, China, Russia, USA, India, Japan and Korea.

Investment of billions of dollars and euro in high science and Nuclear Fusion technology even on the tide of financial crisis must clear up all illusions - the picture of energy production decline is apprehended by politicians quite seriously. It is apprehended as a guide to action. The one who gets sufficient energy resources by 2030 will be able to survive. All the rest will have to fight for resources annihilating each other or quickly degrade, returning back to wood fuelling.

And here they came... sly Ukrainians with their shale gas:
It has long been known - never boast of your gas and oil, - or you'll call a democracy upon your head. Had been warned but didn't hear, better cock a snook at Moscow.
And now let's read carefully on Yuzivska shale gas field (south of Kharkov and north of Donetsk region) what's related in figures:
- estimated deposits 4 trillions m3
- planned production capacity (so far) 10 billions m3 a year
- investments, planned for Yuzivska and (mark!) Odessa gas field workouts in 30 years to come - order of 50-70 billion dollars.
Assuming the price of gas in Europe remains the same - 400 dollars for 100 m3. After simple calculation we see that bowels of the Donetsk and Kharkov earth contain 4x400bill=1600 trillions of sure green bucks.



Annual income in current prices may come up ad minimum to 10x400 million =4 billions.
The question is what can be done to Ukraine for 1,5-2 trillions of bucks? Anything one chooses, in most pervert fashion. And this is Yuzivska field only!
Everything falls in place at once and most things become clear, say a governing board of the company, which plans to help "Shell" in gas-mining.
By the way, take a note - in that article and earlier and above mentioned is Odessa shale gas field... And if just cast a glance over the Ukrainian map of shale gas fields...
Poltava region emerges, where drillings have already been tried.

A couple of trifles might be added.
1. Let's match a map of South-Eastern battle operations against the plan of Yuzivska gas field
A very curious match.
2. Let's recall that a tender to mine gas of Yuzivska gas field was won by British-Dutch company "Shell", which immediately voiced for swift drillings (first half of 2014 year) and gas mining in (already!) 2015 (sure as hell - time is money!)

3. Let's recall a recent history of shale gas in Donetsk region. Sorry for the reference, but in this case it suits all right. November-December of 2013. Housewives with kitchen pans protest against shale gas
4. And, at last, let's glance over the plan of gas tubes passing trough Ukraine
... and by a mental exertion match it against Yuzivska field map. No great effort will be required to see that Yuzivska gas field is very close to the main tube "Soyuz" and a relatively small sum of money is needed to cast a connecting tube from the drills to the main and thence straight ahead - to Europe. Though... "Gasprom" will be a little dissatisfied.


Read also:





"Voice of Sevastopol" asks for help in breaking the information blockade

Уважаемый посетитель, Вы зашли на сайт как незарегистрированный пользователь.
Мы рекомендуем Вам зарегистрироваться либо войти на сайт под своим именем.
Comments: Add Comment
Would you like to leave your comment? Please Login to your account to leave comments. Don't have an account? You can create a free account now.