Voice of Sevastopol     


Author: Ayre от 4.08.2014, 10:58
(голосов: 3)


II) The puzzle itself – world order retailoring in gas layout
Let’s collect all bits together.

It has to be clear, that the battle under way is aimed – besides other points, - at the coming Energy Crisis of 2030. The issue in question – the one who succeeds in capturing of energy resource deposits is going to survive. The one who does not is going to be wept over at the funeral banquet. That’s why no smallest compromise is to be expected on the West side. If it’s possible to bite off a handsome piece of something, they will, heedless of decencies. That explains obstinate position of Europe and USA which appears sort of inadequate. But in reality it is just the way it has to be with a state which is moving towards a global energy crisis – no compromise, the one who gives in, dies first.


Participation of “Shell” explains position of Europe. Things appear as if Europe teams up with USA to disadvantage of itself, it is not quite so. “Shell” is a European company (mostly), and the principal consumer of supposed shale gas – Europe. They count on getting Donbass gas at prices substantially lower than those of “Gasprom”. And with minimally needed investment – gas transportation system already exists. So Europe is going to show obstinate position on Ukraine, seemingly absurd, but logically correct. They are not to suffer of cold, they intend to buy cheap gas. They intend to eat up Ukraine as a whole. And when they exhaust everything out of her (some 30-40 years after), she will be thrown out as garbage for anybody to pick up.
Now the question of money, what is more profitable - to invest money in a project of Laser Nuclear Fusion with no guarantee of success, or invest the same money in shale gas mining, which (what luck!) is located close to existing gas tube running blue fuel to the principal consumer – Europe. The answer is obvious. But there are certain factors, which may potentially bring down the attractiveness of Ukrainian shale gas.

A) Population. In spite of all assurances as to environmental safety given by “Shell”, first drillings gave discharges to Severny Donets river which local residents didn’t like at all. That gave rise to a problem – things had to be settled down with the locals. The extreme case of USA, where farmers won 2-3 million in lawsuit against shale gas mining company for destroyed water supply, has been very instructive.

The problem may be solved in two ways – good and evil.

In good way all dissatisfied have to be resettled, each given money to move over and buy a new housing. Let’s try to calculate how much that might be.


North of Donetsk region population (large industrial area) is almost a million people, most of them are concentrated in Slavyansk-Kramatorsk town agglomeration and similar territories. An average family consists at least of 3 persons. That is that 330000 families have to be resettled. How much a small country house or a 2 room apartment is in Donetsk region? Well, it is order of 20 000 bucks. That makes full resettlement at a price of 330 x 20 million = 6,6 billion of green American money. Initial investments were calculated some 3-4 billion a year. That is, for the first two years, not a drop of gas to sell, only pay for resettle of housewives, kids and old folks. Does Europe need it?

Evil way – to conclude a treaty with Kiev authorities to prepare the territory in question for industrial gas mining. As to the rest - leave everything to Kiev – either shoot all down, or herd all to concentration camps … Whatever. Democratic “Shell” will never see that. Likewise interested in gas Europe shall not notice any genocide. So genocide has to be accomplished in full, to the dot. As to the funds to go evil - minimal investments are needed. Half a million a day may suffice. 40 days for clean-up make some 20 million for the problem solution…

People of Donbass should not create illusions – they all will be driven off Yuzivska gas field or killed. Suppose, I will not be much mistaken to assume that this honest money have already been given by all parties involved. The clean-up is going on. Militants’ commander Strelkov keeps telling that Ukrainians continue shelling civil areas of towns and settlements, killing non-combatant residents. This population is not needed because it’s going to hamper in mining dollars from Donbass bowels… and Europe will go heedless of genocide even if Ukrainians cover up Donbass with meter thick napalm.

B) Geology. Shale gas mining technology requires dissolution of limestone soils by acids. In the USA such exercises resulted in ecology problems (ground waters mostly), but it did not cave grounds since local soils contained much sand and clay that are not solved by acids. They keep the surface tight after washing out of gas and solutions and do not let the surface to give.
Quite the contrary is in Donbass. Local soils contain much soft limestone. Very few know that Karachun hill is known to locals as a Chalk Hill. It really consists of chalk, and in Slavyansk-Kramatorsk region there is a lot of chalk quarries. From viewpoint of gas mining large share of soft limestone is a great advantage, since it will solve faster, in greater amounts, producing more gas. Well, but what is to become of ground surfaces from under which soft limestone is washed out in the course of gas-mining? Correct, they’ll tumble down. And here again we face the problem A – population of tumbling towns must be absent at the moment of collapse. Or you can’t get away with a lawsuit of 3 million, and expenses will jump up to figures which puts eventual profit at question.
That’s why there’s no use in waiting for least constructive position on the part of Europe in Donbass war. She’s interested in the war to make Yuzivska gas field clear of local folks.

C) Gas-main pipeline. So far it is possessed by Ukrainian government and is filled with Russian gas, but the solution of the question is under way, which may be conjectured from Mr.Yatsenyuk claims. And its solution moves in direction different to that of which many of us think. The task is to provide access of growing bulks of shale gas, expected from Yuzivska gas mines, to the main tube. Here comes another problem – how to mix up Russian natural gas with less good shale gas. I suspect nobody is going to improve mined shale gas – after chalk solving it may present a better commodity than American gas. But the gas mix and its quality in sense of the thermal output will be poorer than that of Russian gas.
The pipeline is going to be forced off Russia, not at once (to avoid tumble of markets and skyrocketing of prices) but slowly, at the rate of growing Yuzivska outputs. Gasprom will not be able to prove anything in European courts. Very soon Ukraine will enact laws, dictated by Europe and USA, by force of which Gasprom will be forced out of gas-main pipeline. So blockade of South Stream on the part of Europe looks absolutely sane and logical.

Substantial part of the puzzle is expansion of conflict to Kharkov region, specifically to its southern part. There’s going to be more of ATO (antiterrorist operation) with the same goals and results as in Donbass – drive away or kill local population. It hampers to mine shale gas and may increase mining expenses. The same goes for Poltava region, very soon new terrorists are expected to appear amongst local residents, who will certainly be killed by glorious Ukrainian soldiers in the course of 3rd ATO round. The 4th ATO round is going to take place in Odessa region. There successfully works Igor Kolomoisky. Many bits of puzzle here fall in place – visit of V. Nuland to Odessa (drugs and only sea gate are very important, but gas and oil – more weighing arguments), Kolomoisky activities and (!) recently published by USA experts communication more accurately defining data on Odessa gas field capacity. The capacity is claimed to be so big as to make it of Yuzivska rank.
So the problem of Odessa population will stand as hard, as soft limestone is going to wash out and result in ground surface collapse. So the need to enlist terrorists a part of Odessa region population and subject it to genocide…

Here we are, my dear allislosters and putinflushedallers. I do strongly suspect that Putin and his people in Gasprom know damn well everything I have brought here. And so the more over. They do understand that Strelkov, Abver, Borodai and other good people hold in their hands the key not to wealth only, but to Gasprom life itself, to Russian people welfare. It is them who define whether Gasprom stays in the European gas market or is going to be forced out, slow but sure, in some 5 years to come, by shale Donbass gas of “Shell”. Possible losses you can judge for yourselves. They are not acceptable for Russia. The last accountant can tell you that it is easier to provide 100 million bucks aid for Donbass, than to squeeze you gas in “Shell” occupied pipeline. Or to come out to European market with gas more expensive than “Shall’s”. Or to build anew completely ruined Donbass. So nobody is going to flush Strelkov down and will never be. One thing must be minded – the problem is VERY delicate, the price in question is so high, that at a price of half a trillion of green money it is very easy to get a regional war. And our sworn partners will easily take it – the price has been outlined. So delicate approaches are needed.

Though the hysteria of “putinflushedall” is quite welcome – makes up a good background for wise Ukrainians and sworn partners.


Translator: Master Butch

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