Poroshenko to Plan Major Assault in October

In Russia Ukrainian troopers are getting hosted in the special military camps that treat them and provide meals and water. They are promised to get shipped to junta-controlled areas.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian mass media state that assault on Donetsk is setting off and military forces loyal to Kolomoyski and Poroshenko grip cities of Lugansk and Donetsk even tighter. The rebels controlled territory is being reduced, they say. “Ukrainian army has brought hundreds of units of military vehicles and artillery to Donetsk, including MLRS systems (“Uragan”, “Smerch”, “Grad”) and “Tochka-U” tactical missile units.” The Ukrainians are trying to cut their way to Donetsk landing blows on Krasnogorovka and Marjinka suburbs.

The main cities themselves are now on the edge of humanitarian disaster. They suffer shortage of water, the stores are empty and people from suburbs come to the center of cities escaping the bombardment. The dormitories host numerous refugees; the supply of humanitarian aid is crippled due to roads being constantly shelled.

By taking over the roads going through the towns of Shakhtersk, Torez and Snezhnoe, Kiev forces would be able to close in on both Gorlovka and Donetsk. At present Ukranian army is bringing formations of heavy assault vehicles to the south of Debaltsevo, Shakhtersk and Torez. The military headquarters are trying to break through to the suburbs of Donetsk from west and southwest.

But most likely the town of Shaktersk is the main target. Being isolated the town is short of water, power supply, gasoline and communications. There is no fuel for ambulance and other emergency services vehicles, public transport is not operating too.

At the time present the main concern is for how long the warfare will last. The tactical maps look more optimistic from Ukrainian side: the area of counterterrorist operation is reducing, connection between cities of Lugansk and Donetsk is no more and the grip around rebel outposts tightens. Seemingly the rebels defeat is a matter of few weeks though military experts warn against prompt conclusions.

“The only thing which is clear is that situation is complex, controversial and rapidly changing,” said Konstantin Makienko, the Center of Strategy and Technology Analysis deputy director. “The dominating opinion among experts over the past few weeks was that Novorossia is to last no more than a week, but it turned out to be way more resistant”.

According to expert, no one knows the rebel military power really is: “As to Ukrainian Army we know well the grouping is from 35 to 50 thousand people, we know their equipment. But there are no even rough estimations on how big the Novorossian grouping is. Some say it’s about 6 thousand, some state it’s over 18 thousand. And these are of great difference”.

It’s noticeable that the head of Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Valery Geletey estimates the headcount of Novorossian army being around 15 thousand people. At that he mentioned Kiev being victorious soon.

At their best the governmental troops would get bogged in combat in Donetsk itself for quite a while. Taking into account the third wave of mobilization this might happen not earlier than 45 days from now on. Then it will take about month for newcomers to get seasoned to war. In that way the operations are most likely to liven up in late October.