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Donbass at crossroads

Author: Ayre от 20.09.2014, 20:34
(голосов: 1)

 

The strange "truce" agreed on at the most unsuitable moment for Novorossiya not only raises questions about further development of the national revolution in Donbass, but also gives time for reflection. And there is something to think about...

Events in Ukraine are developing in the most tragic scenario. Lets leave the emotional component of it aside as possible - heroism, sacrifice, perseverance, death, tears and suffering. They do exist and will not go away, but all of them are results of underlying processes: economic, social, political, historical. These processes, in fact, determine actions of the most influential politicians, multibillionaires, states and coalitions of states, who do not always want to execute these actions, but obedience is stronger than will.

imperialism

The fact that the United States is in the process of economic collapse has been discussed many times by many people, so here I will only mention this maxim. The capitalism has reached its highest stage - imperialism. We live in terrible times: the imperialism has exhausted itself and now is dying bringing misery to those living during the period of its death, which will take several decades. The imperialism constantly attempts to prolong its existence at any price for as long as it can. Imperialism is war.

The economic collapse of imperialism, which serious economists do not even try to deny, requires either a recognition of the United States as a bankrupt country or a war: a great war to burn all of the American debt, a great war to guarantee that everything is burned as long as it is far enough from the United States borders. Major US creditors are in Europe, hence the center of the war must be in the center of Europe and hence, Ukraine. The war must drag in the European Union, Russia, the Greater Middle East and, indirectly, China. The US must remain out of it, that is the plan. It will not be possible to contain the chaos in the planned boundaries, but that is a different matter. The world oligarchy who picked the US for its base has no other choice. By and large it is not only the US who is bankrupt, it is the whole world. The oligarchs hope that they have enough for their lives.

Without this the understanding of processes taking place in Ukraine, Russia, the rest of Europe and the Greater Middle East is impossible. Donbass is just the epicenter of the emerging chaos. If we do not stop the United States there, the process will grow, at some point as rapidly as an avalanche.

From this understanding it becomes clear what is happening. The fascist coup in Ukraine was entirely planned, organized and paid by the United States special operations forces. The United States completely controls money given to Maidan by Poroshenko, Firtash and other oligarchs. The only difference is that Firtash understands that he should not get involved in all this, while Poroshenko due to his stupidity, provincialism and the lust for fame, typical for thieves, does not. Only his complete worthlessness could bring him to the presidency of the collapsed state.

Poroshenko and other puppets have no room for any maneuvers after their time ends. They are just puppets as the South Vietnamese "president" Nguyễn Văn Thiệu. Their purpose is to start a war, which at a right time will drag in Russia and NATO, in other words, Europe. The fascist regime in Kiev does not have other options to remain in power. For strategists from CIA and RAND Corporation Ukraine is nothing more than fagots for the world conflagration. Therefore Poroshenko, as well as Turchinov before him, and all those who will come after Poroshenko will wage war. They simply have no other choice. They cannot even run away, they will not be allowed anywhere.

Ukraine collapse

So, all that has remained of Ukraine - 38 million people, stocks of weapons, food and other resources will be used for the war in Donbass. In a broader sense, for the war with Russia. Our country was the only country capable to stop fascism, the vanguard of imperialism in 1945. Only our motherland can stop it now. If only Bandera-fascist gangs were not so incompetent and helpless, they would be now fighting in Rostov-on-Don and routes over Caucasus mountains. For those who planned the current tragedy, the success of the fascist regime in Kiev is not necessary. The regime should just last until mid-late October. The deployment of NATO forces will not be completed until then. There is no other plausible explanation of events surrounding Malaysian Boeing. The CIA, watching the collapse of their puppets, rushed with the casus belli, but Pentagon stopped them: the forces on the Ukrainian border are not yet ready for an offensive. When it is necessary, they will shoot down another plane with hundreds of passengers. The casus belli is just an excuse for war, it is not the cause.

The Ruin (ed.: a historical term for Ukraine) has 38 million people. Its territory has thousands of tanks, guns, and hundreds of planes and helicopters. The fact that most of them are in need of repair will not stop the war. They will find money for repairs. The Ruin population has 3.8 million of men fit for military service. However, that does not mean all of them can be used. Men of former Ukraine fit for military service are not motivated to go to war. Until now, the junta has mobilized 75-80 thousand people, out of whom about 20,000 are attack troopers from parties involved in the fascist coup. That is less than 2 percent of the whole mobilization potential.

It should be understood that the fascists can only recruit some of these men. Things are not better with the army preparation for the winter. According to periodic leaks from blurting junta leaders, the CIA and the RAND Corporation do not have plans for them from mid-October onward. By 15th of October NATO will enter Ukraine and local speculators will no longer be needed.

Hence comes the understanding of the situation in Ukraine. The crisis has escalated into the civil war. The opposing sides are not equal in size, population and the overall potential. The junta has six times more resources, but it is unable to mobilize them because of the lack of motivation for war among the population and natural deficiencies of a typical oligarchic state. The oligarchy can only effectively suppress internal, not armed protests. It cannot withstand an armed insurgency, moreover a war with an external enemy.

An oligarchic state is flaky. The central power is a priori weak. To maintain loyalty the oligarchic state has to let regional powers to keep parts of regional internal revenues. In Ukraine regions also take formal attributes of power. Here is how it was in March-April. The junta let all regional oligarchs control local internal revenues. Taxes already adjusted for the benefit of the oligarchy were not paid at all. Crumbs the junta received from the outside as loans were brazenly plundered. That is why the oligarchy army is hungry and barefoot. It lacks weaponry. It is led by an incompetent command, it was not trained during peace time, thus it cannot effectively use weapons it has. It consists of violent and aggressive fascist activists who are not used to discipline, who do not want to engage in combat training, thus are not combat-ready. First they want to fight, without realizing what they are getting into, and then, after committing war crimes they cannot stop and leave. Two other components of the oligarchic army are mercenaries recruited with promises of large salaries and possibilities of looting and rapine and intimidated, demoralized conscripts, who are pushed into the army with deception and threats, or simply caught in the streets. Neither group had combat training nor they have a motivation for real war.

This army is ran by orderlies who stole generals boots, such as Geletey who started his career as a personal general's driver and then organized a clandestine vodka trade, alcoholics such as “admiral” Tenyukh. The officers of the oligarchic army are trash selected and promoted from the worst. They have no military knowledge because in military schools their teachers did not train students. They don't have practical skills for managing troops and equipment because money for that training was stolen.

The oligarchy army cannot do much. Therefore Donbass-Novorossiya with the population of 6.5 million people can not only resist the Bandera-fascist junta which controls 38 million people, but also can destroy it. Maybe... Only if Novorossiya mobilizes all its resources. I had a lot to write about it in late April, May, June and the first days of August. But the course of events in Ukraine and Russia requires to speak about it again because it is not yet as it needs to be.

It can be summarized that in April 2014 Donbass revolutionaries tried to build Russian Novorossiya at a various pace and a degree of effort, trying to avoid questions of ideology and class struggle. We can say to some extent that this political process in Novorossiya is an attempt to build a war capitalism. Adolf Hitler was the only one who tried to build it before. It is well known how his attempt has ended. Only a war communism can succeed with the goal of building socialism after the victory in the war. The Soviet Union was forced to implement the war communism twice during 1918-1922 and 1941-1945. Our history shows that this was done not for its own sake, but for the possibility of peaceful socialism building. It is no longer necessary to convince workers that socialism is better than even Finnish-Swedish capitalism, moreover an oligarchy. Citizens of Novorossiya confirmed it the hard way.

However... Novorossiya is not yet at the point where a human life is more sacred than the right of oligarch to own a factory which he stole on forged documents. Because the oligarchy, as any other more or less developed political system is waging war with Novorossiya not only on the external front, but also internally and it is good at that - bribery, betrayal, blackmail, infiltration of agents into government structures. That is its weapon and there are more tools. Both, Ukraine and Russia have oligarchic regimes. They may quarrel and even fight each other, but both regimes are serving the same class. The wealth flows from one country to the other. It is blurred and ephemeral as well as blurred and intertwined financial interests. If the two regimes having the same class basis with interlacing property and interests cannot agree, at least they can interact. Also one should not ignore that the oligarchs in Ukraine and Russia are part of the global world oligarchy.

They are subjected to it and act in its interests associating them with their own interests. And these interests may not coincide with the interests and needs of the state, which suffered a misfortune of having the oligarchs around. Moreover, they may conflict with the interests of the state government.

Keep in mind that the oligarchs have hidden influence on all spheres of life in the countries they are robbing from top to bottom. The struggle of the Russian leadership with such influence is a separate issue and we will analyze it in other materials, for now lets get back to the problem of forming the government of Novorossiya.

Attacks of fascist oligarchic junta against Novorossiya leadership from within are now much more successful than the military operation. At a very early stage of the revolution the Security Service of Ukraine was able to replace the leaders of the popular uprising with infiltrators. So, Pushilin and his group headed the Donetsk People Republic while Bolotoff and his entourage headed the Lugansk People Republic. When the territory controlled by the republics was reduced threefold and its existence became questionable, Slavyansk brigade commander Strelkov was forced to leave Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka and to go to Donetsk to restore the order.

He was able to solve some problems, but after a month and a half he was expelled from Donbass by manipulations of infiltrators paid by oligarch Akhmetov. Alas, influential players from the Russian backstage actively participated in his elimination.

Now, with the "strange" war, the situation in Novorossiya is very ambiguous. On one hand it created a military force which demonstrated in recent days abilities not only to defend persistently, but also to conduct a serious offensive. It established a centralized distribution system which is used to distribute humanitarian aid. However, Novorossiya leadership is at crossroads. State building in war conditions dictates a vital necessity of the full nationalization of existing means of production. Mobilization is necessary, not only for the army, but also on the labor front.

Novorossiya needs more soldiers than we have now because it is necessary to form a solid front line, otherwise we will not be able to protect it from sabotage and terrorist groups going around checkpoints and roadblocks not connected into one system. Reserves are needed to take back Mariupol, Krasnoarmeysk, Slavyansk, Rubezhnoye, Severodonetsk. Perhaps Izyum, Berdyansk, Starobelsk. Then the most urbanized and densely populated areas of Donbass will be out of reach of Nazi artillery, as well as their tactical missiles.

Industrial production areas will be in hands of Novorossiya to get through the winter and to hold out until the harvest of 2015. The demand for products of their plants in the world market will not disappear, and the currency reserves will allow to buy needed amount of food, medicine, oil and gas without begging Russia for help. Do not forget that it will be very difficult for Russia to feed extra 6.5 million people.

The same question goes for weapon supplies for the army. Donbass cannot quickly establish production of tanks, planes and guns. But repairs of all types of armored vehicles and production of bullets and cartridges is not a problem: tank shells can be produced in Donetsk, cartridges in Lugansk. In addition, each USSR enterprise has mobilization plans for military production, moreover technical documentation and toolsets for production of other weapons and ammunitions matching the plant profile. With that they can very quickly start production of mortars up to 160-mm inclusively, anti-tank recoilless rifles, mines and missiles for them, grenade launchers RPG-7, rocket-propelled grenades, disposable grenade launchers, like RPG-18, as well as more modern and efficient, mines of almost all types.

Breweries can produce Molotov cocktails in quantities needed, sewing and footwear factories - clothing and shoes, in cooperation with metallurgy and machinery plants - bulletproof vests. Small arms production will be harder to implement. While the technological level of machinery plants allows for production of guns and machine guns, the technology for hardening barrels will be a problem. It can be accomplished, but that's a different matter. Taking back Soledar from the Nazis will be sufficient for that. Anything is possible. Or almost everything...

As soon as Donbass shelling stopped, the full-scale unemployment problem arose. Before the war, it was a big problem, but now it is worse. Printing own money is a complex technical issue, not to mention dealing with the counterfeit money production, which will begin almost immediately. For the war time and a year after, a rationing system is needed.

But all that is possible only in state enterprises. It is necessary to carry out the nationalization to mobilize all resources. It is necessary to clarify that most of Donbass enterprises do not belong to Mr. Akhmetov. Out of all Ukrainian oligarchs he is the most sophisticated. It turns out that the coal mines and the steel mills are property of the government of Ukraine. These enterprises are corporatized, but Akhmetov has less than 20 percent of shares of these entities. In other words, he manages someone else's property. Kolomoyskyi's triple priced diesel and kerosene for punitive forces fade against such background.

Not being the owner of enterprises and entire industries Akhmetov has developed a scheme of "external digestion". Using his money, he corrupted officials in management structures and promoted his people to key positions. As events show, he promoted his leaders wherever possible. The scheme is somewhat unusual, but it allows Akhmetov to control the property he “does not” own even from Kiev and to remove objectionable resistance leaders substituting them with his henchmen.

A horrendous story surfaced just the day before yesterday only confirms the need for nationalization. It turned out that punitive battalions of Right Sector are supplied with food and uniforms from ... Donetsk, from Donbass-Arena warehouses. Punishers were fed products from the area they stormed and destroyed ... This is the oligarchic war. Imperialism is the highest form of capitalism. Only its antagonist can confront it. Only war communism can win the fight against imperialism and oligarchy.

prisoners exchange

Now it is a truce in Ukrainian Civil War. Extremely disadvantageous for Novorossiya, it is advantageous for the fascist junta, signed by those who serve interests of the oligarchy in Novorossiya leadership, primarily Ukrainian. It is clear how they moved to top positions, details will become known later. When the Nazi invaders complete regrouping and replenishment of their troops they will strike out from Debaltsevo in order to unblock Mariupol. Shelling of residential areas of Donetsk will resume. And of course questions will arise about who signed this "truce", why, and what to do with them. They will let go, I will not guess when and where. In DPR the Prime Minister and the Chairman of the Supreme Council were replaced, in LPR – the head of the republic. Since the general public is not aware of the level of integrity of politicians, I will not guess who will be new leaders of the republics, or this level of power will be eliminated as no longer needed. But I can safely say that the political crisis in Novorossiya will be overcome only after nationalization and introduction of war communism for the duration of war. It does not matter what it will be called for tactical reasons.

Donbass can survive only that way. And save all of Ukraine too. And not only Ukraine...

 

Published 09/09/2014 at 21:46

 

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