Voice of Sevastopol     


Author: Ayre от 23.09.2014, 20:05
(голосов: 1)
 Everything that is happening in modern history has happened many times before. For several millennia of history recorded on paper, parchment, papyrus, etc. the man himself has not changed. The pace of history, the power of weapons have changed, but the people remained the same. Lets look at one interesting analogy.
February 1917:
The coup d'etat in Petrograd overthrew Tsar Nicholas II and brought to power the Provisional Government. The coup succeeded for many reasons including political weakness of the Tsar unable to fight it, direct support of the overthrow from Britain and France (except cookies were not distributed) and the apathy among people due to the ongoing war and economic problems.
February 2014:
The Maidan coup: full political impotence of Yanukovych, the direct support of the coup by the EU and the United States, the apathy among people from the economic turmoil and outright criminals in power.
What happened in 1917 after the coup:
- Creation of a plainly weak and dumb Provisional Government headed by a political prostitute Kerensky, the adoption of laws unfavorable for the state and the army
- Quick disintegration and degradation of the army and the economy, by September the front as such did not exist
- Mass desertion of sailors and soldiers with arms, creation of multiple uncontrolled gangs and groups, a surge of separatism on outskirts
And as a natural result - the October Revolution, Kerensky's escape in a woman dress and the coming to power of a small but energetic group of Bolsheviks, who offered the country a new idea. Only that saved the country, albeit at the price of enormous sacrifices.
Parallels to 2014:
- Miserable government headed by Yatsenyuk and Turchinov and the new president Poroshenko with rhetoric not better than Kerensky's, exactly the same political impotence.
- Rapid deterioration of the economy, the army was in a shambles even before the war, all this just came out during the ATO.
- Crimea secession, the first serious defeat, and a failure of the punitive operation. The front is relatively stabilized after Minsk talks.
- Mass desertion from the ATO zone with weapons. Creation of many armed units not controlled at all or not fully controlled by Kiev.
Almost naturally, the result will be the same - the fall of the central government. Even the timing is likely to be similar - October-November 2014. The only difference is that Ukraine does not have the "Order of Bolshevik Brothers of the Sword," who could give the Ruin (ed. a historical term for Ukraine) some slightest national idea. Bandera's idea is completely bankrupt, it's obvious now, but another is not there.
Is it possible to save the Ruin by other means? Yes. There is one way - vigorous pumping to the economy from the outside, by the EU or by the IMF. One can fill the Ruin with money to create some resemblance of prosperity, the figure is known - 35 billion dollars for this year only. But it is already clear that this will not happen.
Another option is a "revolution from the top", similar to Egypt - Poroshenko will have to depend on the mobilized army to disperse and shoot all political rivals and establish a dictatorship, but with the support of the army, not Bandera groups. But for this he should be "Lenin", not "Kerensky." So the chances of this option are also close to zero.
Predicting the development of situation in the Ruin is difficult, it is changing rapidly, but if we take the analogy of 1917-1918, then:
- June offensive on the front - an attempt to mobilize the society with the help of a victory on the front. The most battle worthy battalion advanced and yet after the first rival retaliation, its soldiers ran away because they did not understand why they should fight. Will there be another attempt to attack Donetsk?
- Germany did not have resources and capacity to continue the war in the east, all of its forces were absorbed on the western front. But when it was necessary to put pressure on yet weak Bolshevik's government, the minimum force was sufficient - they just moved forward without encountering the slightest resistance, occupying the entire Baltic region. It all ended on the terms of Brest treaty under Berlin conditions... In case of coup in Kiev, the front in the east will just fall apart.
- Complete economic collapse, seceding regions, creation of tens of governments, wild fields on substantial parts of the territory. It is unlikely that the Ruin will come to that because it is too disadvantageous for its neighbors, but who knows?

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