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NATO enlargement policy is a mistake of the United States

Author: Ayre от 24.09.2014, 20:01
(голосов: 1)
Experts advise the White House to leave Ukraine alone
The article by John Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago, that has been published in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs (September/October 2014) is encouraging. First, the author suggests not only realistic, but, perhaps, even the only possible way out of the Ukrainian crisis for the U.S. government. And, second, because this suggestion appears in a respectable magazine. Sooner or later, the United States have to do just what has been advised by the professor.
Analyzing the situation step by step, John Mearsheimer recalls how it has happened. "The United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trouble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West,"- says the professor. In his view, American and European leaders have deeply miscalculated by trying to turn Ukraine into a bastion of the West on the Russia's borders. “Now that the consequences (of these blunders) have been laid bare, it would be an even greater mistake to continue this misbegotten policy," - concludes the expert.
In the actions of Vladimir Putin, he sees the same logic, the same consistent and motivated policy that we (in Sevastopol) do. Yes, the Russian president warned that the West is not worth hosting in our own backyard and setting us against our neighbors. Yes, he has already demonstrated commitment in the conflict with Georgia. “Washington may not like Moscow’s position, but it should understand the logic behind it. This is Geopolitics 101: great powers are always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory… Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it,”- gives John Mearsheimer a simple analogy.
I tend to think that the White House should not be spoon-fed with such platitudes. Even though the professor is surely right, the U.S. administration finds itself today in the unenviable situation - it is simply obliged to punish the offender, who publicly slapped her. In this sense, the sanctions against Russia are as logical and consistent, as the return of Crimea home (to Russia) at the time when there was a threat of an American base on the peninsula.
Generally, the modern confrontation between nuclear powers resembles a game of chess, according to which rules two pieces cannot stand on the same cell: to take the occupied cell a player has to “eat” an opposing piece. That is to enter into a “direct contact”, which – that is the direct military contact – is exactly what the United States and Russia have avoided at all costs, because it would inevitably lead to the next, and last, world war. We can snarl, hound peripheral countries to attacks one of us, but never knowingly initiate a direct armed conflict with each other.
If the Americans would have taken the "cell" called “Crimea” a day before us, we would have hardly been able to use the “polite people” to retake it all. The American military presence in the Black Sea, which automatically renders meaningless the existence of the Black Sea Fleet, would, then, last forever. That, in fact, what drives Washington nuts - his elaborate operation to seize the peninsula took many years and required a lot of money, but all was in vain.
And now it is time for the Americans to go, smacking their lips, around the occupied cell on the chessboard. They can only take it by declaring a war on us. That will not happen, no matter how many destroyers and cruisers under the star-spangled flag pass the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, and no matter how many exercises the Americans carry out here.
Sanctions, as rightly said not only by John Mearsheimer, but many other reasonable people will not work - neither Crimea, nor – even more – Ukraine, we will ever give back. Not because we are so evil or rich, but because we cannot allow anyone to threaten our own security. There is no doubt that the Ukrainian crisis will be ultimately resolved in such a way that Russia will not feel vulnerable. That is, in our favor.
“The United States and its European allies now face a choice on Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacerbate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process – a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win,”- concludes the professor from Chicago. But the Obama administration cannot, of course, to follow this route for political reasons and, hence, one should not expect a quick change of the course.
The strongest proof of it is the article by Anders Fogh Rasmussen in the September 15 issue of Wall Street Journal, in which Russia’s Vladimir Putin is called the enemy of freedom, democracy, and the rule of law. “We are confronted by forces of oppression that reject our liberal democracy and our liberal, rules-based international order,” - said to the world the NATO Secretary General. One should not expect him to act according to the arguments expressed by John Mearsheimer.
To “loosen over tightened nuts” will be the task for the next U.S. president – it is inevitable. After playing the now clearly non-promotable pawn – Ukraine, the Americans throw it to us to be "eaten" and forgotten. As they have forgotten today about Georgia.
And we have to balance between China, with which we also need to be very careful, and Europe, now wishing to resume full economic relations. Such situation is acceptable for a Eurasian power because the equidistance between the West and the East is what we have always sought.
 

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