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WHY RUSSIA IS IN NO HURRY TO RECOGNIZE THE NEW RUSSIA

Author: Viking от 31.05.2014, 13:11
(голосов: 1)

http://voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/1141-pochemu-rossija-ne-speshit-priznavat-nov.html

Let’s look at the current Ukrainian affairs very figuratively, from a great distance. Imagine such a situation: two companies sitting in a tavern, having a drink, a snack. Both here and there are normal, intelligent, reasonable people. A member of the first company approaches to one of the second group and asks:
- Can I invite your girl for a dance, please?
- Yes, you can.
They dance. Dancing, he whispers all sorts of vulgarities in her ear, invites her to sit at his table, tries to give free rein to his hands. But things go more or less decently (for a tavern) yet.
After five minutes, he comes up again:
- Can I invite your girl for a dance?
- No, you can not!
- Why?
- She does not want to … I don’t want it either. You have danced enough, calm down!
- Why are you so harsh? Let’s come out and talk?
- Come on …
They are going outdoors.
- Well, say what you wanted to say.
- Do you grudge me a dance with her or what?
- She’s my girl, I do not want you to dance with her.
- Maybe she likes me more than you? Let’s go and ask her. (putting his hand on the neck of his opponent)
- Get your hands off! (removing the opponent’s arm from his neck)
- Why such a reaction, man? Well I talk to you normally! (putting his hand back)
- I said take away your hands! (pushing him on the chest)

A fight begins. Flowing out into the street, both companies are trying to separate the bullies. During the scuffle someone touches somebody. Word for word and the fight becomes widespread… A knife twinkles… Someone occasionally has a traumatic gun… Shots… Blood… Dead bodies.

***

 

Typically, cases of this kind start with small things, and end in tragedy. And if one of those reasonable people knew initially how it ends, then, having enough fortitude he could stop the situation in the beginning. Assume that guy knocked out the dancer right at the table, and then immediately drew his traumatic and ordered the opponent’s company not to snatch. Then nobody would snatch and there would be no mass brawl, and no bodies.
But culture would not allow to react so “inadequately” at that time. And the accusations from those reasonable people would then be inevitable…
Now, if Yanukovych now tripped in a time machine from Russia to Kiev of November 2013, what do you think – would he have broken up the Maidan with water cannons and rubber bullets? I believe that even with his amorphous nature, he would hesitate no more to give such an order.
.
So back to Ukraine.
Initially, analyzing the situation even back in 2013, it was clear that two main forces act at the Maidan – the USA and the EU in the face of Germany. Moreover, Germany was although relatively latent, but more interested player, because in case of signing the Agreement between Ukraine and the EU it would receive all the economic benefits directly. The USA, they would receive although distant, but visible prospect of Ukraine joining NATO and thus advancing the American missile defense system to the borders of Russia. And we must understand that reducing the flight time of nuclear missiles to Moscow to 12 minutes is the noose around the Russia’s neck, which can be tightened any moment. America systematically and rigorously moves towards this goal since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. But this was not to be said aloud, even in Russia (the cultured stage of the conflict). So all the talks revolved around Ukraine joining or non-joining in the EU (does the girl want to dance or not).
As a result of the armed coup performed in February 2014 in Ukraine, Russia was forced to react to the situation.Having incorporated Crimea, Moscow has however knocked out the “dancer” right at the table. But then the unfortunate culture has not allowed to draw the traumatic and to aim the whole company. Instead, the cultured explanations followed: “He had it coming, you can see for yourself – he’s really drunk.”
In response from the opposite table sounded: “What are you doing, savage! He did ask politely, and you had no right to do so. And he was not drunk at all.
The typical “intellectual mistake” was to assume that the United States, rebuffed, will not transform the situation into open and uncompromising opposition (because of that the gun has not been drawn). However, the knocked opponent, regaining consciousness, instead of apologies began to incite all the “cultured” company to have revenge together…
Recovering from the March shock, the U.S. has taken a hard turn to the entire EU and launched an attack on Russia, with the main goal to provoke a big fight. Then surely Russia will look to everyone as the “savage, who made a brawl in the restaurant.”

***

Entering troops into Novorossia, unlike Crimea, is not profitable for Moscow and here’s why. Crimea is a separate matter. There is the Russian naval base having enormous geostrategic importance. The threat of its loss and of occurrence of U.S. base in its place has been sufficient to start taking action. Plus – Crimea is a peninsula and its control in military terms at the initial stage is limited to blocking Perekop isthmus that can be easily done. Well, of course, the economic prospects of owning Crimea will soon be demonstrated to Ukraine, which failed to develop this fertile region for 23 years. Thus, the incorporation of the Crimea is a separate strategic objective, which was performed with very skillful using of the current tactical conditions.

And now let’s talk about the main strategic goal of Russia in Ukraine. It is coming to the front more and more clearly and becomes the subject of international declarations more openly (the culture steps aside and things begin to be called by their names). Note that almost noone talks about Crimea (the first uppercut) anymore and the talk about the agreement with the EU (what does the girl want) also falls into the shade. It becomes apparent that the true purpose of the”dancer” was to insult the company at the next table, not to dance with their girl.

Russia does not need the division of Ukraine. Russia needs a loyal, united, stable, economically developed neighbor having a neutral status, which is guaranteed not to host the U.S. missile defense system! But then Moscow faces the question: how to solve this problem tactically?

Option number 1 is to send troops. But where to send them? In Donetsk and Luhansk republics? And then what? Then NATO peacekeeping troops shall appear on the rest of Ukraine territory and its section will performed, as it happened with Germany in its time. In the central and western parts pro-American government shall remain. Is it beneficial to Russia? Does this solve the problem of NATO and missile defense? Of course not.

Option number 2 is a massive and flash-like deployment of troops over the entire territory of Ukraine, the actual occupation of the country. NATO in this case is unlikely to interfere, because it will mean a war with Russia, not mere deployment of peacekeeping troops. Moreover, Ukraine is not a member of the alliance. Moscow will control the situation, but will it then receive a “loyal, united, stable, etc.” neighbor in the face of Ukraine? Of course no . She will receive a huge, unstable, chopped territory with uncertain status, which will begin guerrilla and terrorist war. Plus – the Iron Curtain from the West.

An option number 3 remains – Ukraine itself must overthrow the junta and declare eternal friendship with Russia, and Russia will help it, as it did before. To do this, a war of national liberation should start inside Ukraine. To do this, the Ukrainians have to stand up in arms and to say a resounding “No!” to Junta and its puppeteers. That’s what the puppeteers themselves understand and what they fear. That’s why the punitive operations go on in the country. That’s what people in Odessa have been burned for. That is why Poroshenko has received the instruction to crush down the opposition of the East quickly and violently.
That is why Russia will not incorporate Novorossia and will not recognize its independent status. But that’s why it will be behind the scenes to help the national liberation struggle – the process of liberation must come from within Ukraine.
With the adoption of economic package of the agreements with the EU, Ukraine is to experience all the “charms” of European integration in just a couple of months, and then the number of passionaries in the country will increase dramatically , and the wave of the public anger will be unable to hold . But until then unrecognized Novorossia should be held. Held as a banner of a new, free and independent Ukraine, at which the new passionaries of Odessa, Kiev , Dnepropetrovsk and other Ukrainian cities shall stand in future.
This wave will begin to gain momentum by the turn of the summer and autumn of this year. But of course, the puppeteers of junta understand it, too, and, totally enraged, they can therefore , start just uncovered terror and genocide of the Russian people in Ukraine using weapons of mass destruction against civilians. And then Russia will have no choice but to intervene openly.

Kirill Voronkov


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