Boris Rozhin gives his analysis of the current situation in clashes in Ukrain and his view of the nearest future political events in the country.
The evolution of the situation in the last day shows that the Junta can not already, and the Militia can not yet .
Sporadic shootings, shellings, attempts to seize hostages and movings of irregular forces – it all does not affect the situation strategically, although it continues for many days already, gradually becoming routine and background. Just a few days ago a mortar and artillery fire at Slavyansk was perceived as something extraordinary. But who would be surprised with it now? It is as humdrum as the firefight in Kramatorsk outskirts or DPR Militia raids from Slavyansk to the surrounding villages for mopping up Nazguard.
The Junta appears not to dare to use armored vehicles and aircraft massively before the election, while the Militia is not strong enough yet for today to proceed to the destruction of the enemy force. So a strange situation has developed, when amid the sluggish military conflict, the Militia nibbles the Junta slightly, shooting careless “guards” and trying to deprive army facilities and their weapons. The Junta answers this with traditional hysteria, oozes traditional media lies (the funerals of Strelkov, Bolotov, Babai are proclaimed nearly every day), and also kills civilians senselessly.
Essentially, now both sides are waiting for May 25. DPR uses the time available to consolidate its power, to recruit volunteers and to prepare for tougher confrontation, simultaneously fighting the internal fifth column in the face of Akhmetov and the remnants of the old government.
As for the Junta, having failed the next stage of the punitive operation, it continues to move feverishly their small forces in the territory of the DPR and LPR, while their main group is pointlessly hanging about Slavyansk, suffering painful stabs and causalities. It’s easy to imagine the morale of regular troops.
According to reports, the army has almost withdrawn itself, so the combats continue between the Militia groups and the small units of Special Forces reinforced by the cannon fodder of the “Nazguard”. Judging by the losses and the moving of the front line, the Militia is a success so far, although they are fewer and worse armed. This does not mean any great victory is achieved, just tactically the Junta has suffered a series of sensitive setbacks since May 2, which altogether lead to the collapse of the operational plan of the DPR uprising suppression. In 8 days left before the election, DPR will obviously acquire men and weapons, that will make the military option impracticable. It is problematic even now, and given the fact that small arms leaks into Militia’s hands in hundreds, and that the Militia gets another APC or IFV nearly every day, in a week the DPR army can begin to exceed the Junta grouping in Donbas in number. I would not be surprised if the Militia manages to deprive some tanks and heavy artillery for themselves. All these are present in Donbas – just need to be surrounded and seized competently.
Nevertheless, the Junta shall apparently try to resolve their problems by force, at least at Slavyansk. Because they face several tasks:
1. To stop the uprising in the Southeast by suppressing its core. Because the uprising is not going to limit to two regions.
2 . To get back the control over Donbas, in order to get money from the IMF within the framework of promised loans, and also to return the control over deposits of shale gas.
3 . To speed up the military scenario to mask the failed economic policy. The image of the external and internal enemies should at least temporarily cover the impending economic collapse. War and blood are the best cover.
4 . To get rid of Central Ukraine lumpen element, sending them to war against the “separatists” and thus to eliminate that “senseless and merciless euromaydan” in the center of Kiev.
DPR tasks are somewhat different:
1. By May 25 the authorities and the regular army are to be formed (at least the backbone).
2 . During this week all the local officials, oligarchs and security forces have to make an oath of allegiance to the DPR or to be suspended, if necessary – by force.
3 . The number of armed men should be brought up to 5-7 thousand (to equal the Junta’s in number), they should take not one but several garrisons per day, aiming to seizures of small arms and ammunition. Particular attention should be given to the acquisition of armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons, which will be desperately needed in course of development of the conflict.
4 . Until 25 the DPR should decide – whether it will officially request to join the two regions in the Russian Federation, or it will use these regions as a launching pad to expand and to create a broad federation with areas liberated from the Junta.
After May 11, May 25 will be the next bifurcation point which will determine the development of the civil war in Ukraine. Elections certainly will not solve all the problems, but the situation will change, as the Junta tries to increase its legitimacy, at least for a bit, hence are all the attempts to inflate Poroshenko’s rating over 50 % to avoid the 2nd round, which lead to the conflict within the Junta between Tymoshenko and her accomplices and Poroshenko’s group. In this regard , after May 25 we can expect the announcement of martial law and the intensification of fighting in Donbas as well as clashes in Kiev and Central Ukraine, when the promised by Tymoshenko “maidan 3.0″ will organically supplement the blood pouring in the Southeast.
Boris Rozhin, May 17, 2014, Sevastopol
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